What happens if the August PO wave locks Q3 demand plans before the cost basis settles?

Base case (50%): Mixed August PO commitment. Late-Sep forecast revision required. Bull case (25%): August POs re-cut before July 31 carrier cutoff — cleaner Q4 plan. Bear case (25%): Q3 lock-in cliff — Q4 carries 5–9% over-committed inventory through Sept–Oct destocking.