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Base case (50%): Mixed August PO commitment. Late-Sep forecast revision required. Bull case (25%): August POs re-cut before July 31 carrier cutoff — cleaner Q4 plan. Bear case (25%): Q3 lock-in cliff — Q4 carries 5–9% over-committed inventory through Sept–Oct destocking.
Drewry WCI Shanghai-LA $3,580/FEU week of July 14. Stable vs June. Sep 1 GRI realization running 60–70%, weaker than signaled. Spot shippers should benchmark lanes before committing to Sep 1 GRI.
July mid-month retail tracker +2.0% YoY, modest acceleration from June +1.8%. Retailers placing forward orders in late July for September–October delivery slots ahead of the post-Section 122 cost basis hit.
Grocery CPI at 1.9% YoY in July — mild disinflation continuing. Brazil tariff hits US ag exports including processed food inputs; modest impact for F&B operators, more for downstream ag processors. Watch USDA monthly price index Aug release.
ISM PMI preliminary 47.1 in July — sixth consecutive month below 50. Section 122 reversion Friday plus Brazil HRC upward pressure compounds Q4 cost basis for industrial buyers.
August delivery PO volume is the last window before Q3 demand plans finalize. Reverse-flow distributors into Brazil are repricing or pulling shipments; Section 122 importers are splitting on locked exclusions.
Section 301 product exclusions expire July 24 midnight EST — 48 hours from publish. Importers of Chinese electronics and industrial machinery below the exclusion threshold should assume reversion and price Q4 cost basis accordingly.
Brazil's 25% reciprocal tariff on US-origin steel, aluminum, leather, and select agricultural exports took effect July 22, 2026 — a sell-side margin shock that lands 20–28% landed-cost uplift on US exporters and any reverse-flow distributors shipping into Brazilian destinations.